SADAF SULEMAN
Pakistan emits less than one percent of global greenhouse gases, yet this winter the country is paying a heavy price for a warming planet it did little to create. From hazardous smog in Punjab to unusually dry skies in Sindh, and delayed snowfall in the north, the season has become another reminder of how climate injustice unfolds in real time.
The winter of 2025 has barely begun, yet major cities in Punjab are already suffocating under thick layers of toxic smog. Lahore’s AQI crossed 200 in late October, reaching “very unhealthy” levels, with PM2.5 remaining the dominant pollutant. “As the nights become colder and weather stays dry, air pollution has started increasing in the city,” reported The News (The News, 26 Oct 2025). The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) warned that intense smog episodes will worsen as winter progresses due to stagnant air and a lack of rain. “Stable dry conditions will allow pollutants to accumulate across Punjab,” the NDMA noted in its Winter Contingency Plan (NDMA, 2025). The Pakistan Meteorological Department echoed the concern, saying that “Persistent dry conditions will contribute to the buildup of harmful pollutants,” according to a report in Dawn (Dawn, 27 Oct 2025).
This year’s winter is also forecast to be significantly drier for large parts of Sindh, southern Punjab and western Balochistan. “Below-normal rainfall is expected across southern Pakistan this winter,” the NDMA stated (NDMA Seasonal Outlook, 2025). This lack of rainfall not only worsens smog but threatens agriculture, groundwater recharge, and winter cropping patterns. Farmers in Jacobabad, Dadu, and Khuzdar fear reduced wheat productivity as soil moisture continues to drop.
In Gilgit–Baltistan, upper KP and Chitral, early-winter snowfall has been scarce. Satellite observations and Met Office assessments show delayed snow formation compared to average years. “Snow accumulation is likely to remain slightly below normal this season,” the Pakistan Meteorological Department stated in its winter outlook (PMD, Nov 2025). Reduced snowpack has major implications for summer water flows. Diminished winter accumulation means weakened meltwater supplies for downstream regions during the hottest months, a pattern Pakistan has increasingly observed over the last decade.
With smog engulfing Punjab earlier than usual, public hospitals are already seeing a rise in respiratory cases. Health officials in Lahore told Dawn that flu, asthma attacks, and throat infections have increased sharply since mid-October. “The combination of pollution and dry air is dangerous for vulnerable groups,” a senior pulmonologist at Mayo Hospital told Dawn (Dawn, 29 Oct 2025).
Yet Pakistan’s suffering comes despite its tiny contribution to the crisis. The Germanwatch Climate Risk Index continues to rank Pakistan among the most climate-vulnerable nations (Germanwatch, 2025). “The burden of climate extremes heatwaves, floods, and now disrupted winters falls heavily on countries with the least emissions,” UNEP noted in its South Asia Climate Brief (UNEP, 2024). This winter’s early smog and late snowfall highlight that imbalance clearly.
For low-income households, the season is more punishing. In Lahore, Faisalabad and Karachi, residents face long hours without gas pressure, high electricity tariffs, and unhealthy air that creeps through windows and narrow streets. In Karachi’s Lyari, women report being forced to burn wood or use costly LPG cylinders to cook because of weak gas supply.
Mountain communities are feeling a different kind of pressure. With snowfall arriving late, the tourism season in Naran, Murree, and Skardu has been pushed back. “When snow comes late, tourists come late and our season becomes shorter,” a hotel manager told The Express Tribune (ET, Nov 2025). Local guides and small business owners say reduced early snowfall directly affects their earnings.
Pakistan’s winter crisis, like its heatwaves and monsoon extremes, is now a story of global inequity. The NDMA captured it clearly: “Extreme weather patterns are intensifying due to climate change, and Pakistan remains among the most affected despite contributing least to global emissions.” (NDMA Winter Plan 2025). This winter is not merely a change in temperature, it is a warning. Smog-choked cities, dry southern plains, and snow-starved mountains reveal how climate change disrupts every corner of the country. A nation responsible for less than one percent of global emissions is suffering consequences created elsewhere. Until global climate justice moves beyond speeches and becomes action.